Exports from the EU countries to Russia dropped by half – exports to Central Asian countries on the increase
Exports from the EU Member States to Russia have decreased considerably after the start of the war in Ukraine, and in January–February, the exports were only half of what they had been earlier. Finland’s exports to Russia have decreased even more than that. Exports from the EU countries to Central Asian countries, however, are on the increase. The increase in the number of new operators, the differences in how statistics are compiled and possible circumvention of sanctions can be seen in the exports from Finland to Central Asia.
According to Eurostat statistics, the exports from the EU Member States (the EU27) to Russia fell by 38% last year, that is, by 34.0 billion euros from the previous year. The decrease in exports has continued, and in January–February, the exports from the EU27 to Russia amounted to 7.2 billion euros, which was 50% less than the year before.
The exports from the EU27 to Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Georgia, Armenia and Uzbekistan grew by 88% last year, that is, by 9.6 billion euros from the previous year. Last year, the exports from the EU27 to Kazakhstan grew by 4.9 billion euros, to Uzbekistan by 1.5 billion euros, to Georgia by 1.2 billion euros, to Armenia by 1.1 billion euros and to the Kyrgyz Republic by 0.9 billion euros. In January–February 2023, the exports from the EU27 to these Central Asian countries amounted to a total of 3.8 billion euros, which is 98% more than the year before. (Appendix, Tables 1 and 2)
In January–February 2023, the increase in exports from the EU27 to these Central Asian countries amounted to 26% of the decrease in the exports to Russia when compared in euros.
– The exports from the EU27 to Russia have dropped by half, but Latvia and Slovenia, for example, have increased their exports to Russia. Finland’s exports to Russia have decreased clearly more steeply than the EU average, says Olli-Pekka Penttilä, Director of Statistics.
Finland’s exports to Russia have fallen more than the EU average – new businesses registered in other EU countries visible in Finland’s exports to Central Asia
Finland’s goods exports to Russia have dropped more dramatically than the EU average. In January–February 2023, Finland’s exports to Russia fell by 78%. In January–February, Russia’s share of Finland’s total exports was only 1.3%. A year ago in January–February, Russia’s share of the total exports was 5.5%.
In 2022, Finland’s exports to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic increased by 0.2 billion euros, that is, by 104%, from the previous year. In January–February 2023, Finland’s exports to these Central Asian countries amounted to 0.1 billion euros, a 260% increase from the previous year.
– The growth in Finland’s exports to Central Asian countries is partly explained by an increase in the number of export clearances in Finland involving operators registered in other EU countries. There are also new operators. In January–February 2023, for example, 257 of the operators exporting to Central Asian countries were businesses that were registered in other EU countries and that had no exports from Finland to these countries in 2021. These operators accounted for roughly half of the increase in our exports to Central Asia, says Olli-Pekka Penttilä.
The differences between the export and import statistics are visible in the international trade statistics
When comparing the export and import statistics of different countries, the different methods for compiling statistics should be taken into account. Imports are recorded by country of origin, particularly in non-EU countries, in which case goods originating in Finland, for example, are classified as imports from Finland, regardless of the transport route of the goods to the country of import. Exports are recorded by the declared country of destination, which may not be the actual one, because the final country of destination may change during the transport of the export goods.
In 2021, Kazakhstan was Finland’s largest export country in Central Asia, and the differences between the methods for compiling statistics become visible when comparing the international trade statistics of these countries. Kazakhstan imported goods of Finnish origin to a significant extent from other countries and not directly from Finland. This is why Kazakhstan recorded 24.4 million dollars more as imports from Finland than what Finland recorded as exports to Kazakhstan. This phenomenon can also be observed regarding Armenia, which recorded 9.1 million dollars more as imports than what Finland recorded as exports to Armenia. (Appendix, Table 3)
In 2022, Kazakhstan was still Finland’s largest export country in Central Asia. Last year, Kazakhstan recorded 103.9 million dollars less as imports than what Finland recorded as exports, and the Kyrgyz Republic recorded 27.5 million dollars less as imports than what Finland recorded as exports. (Appendix, Table 4)
– Over the past year, there has been an exceptionally large increase in our exports to Central Asian countries. In addition to normal export growth, this could partly be explained by the differences in how export and import statistics are compiled as well as partly by possible circumvention of sanctions, says Penttilä.