Finland’s exports to Russia and Central Asia plummeted by 68.9 per cent in two years

According to Eurostat’s international trade statistics, Finland’s share of EU exports to Russia and Central Asia was still 3.9 per cent in 2021, but only 1.9 per cent in 2023. Based on the statistics, Finnish companies have decreased their exports to the east considerably more than EU companies on average.

In two years, EU exports to Russia fell by 50.9 billion euros, whereas EU exports to Central Asia grew by 14.0 billion euros during the same period. Central Asia has been deemed to include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Exports from the EU countries to Russia decreased by 57.0 per cent in two years, except for four EU countries that even increased their exports to both Russia and Central Asia. These countries were Slovenia, Bulgaria, Latvia and Croatia. Finland decreased its exports to Russia and Central Asia by 68.9 per cent in two years, which was the third highest figure among the EU countries.

All exports across the Finnish border, regardless of where the companies are established, are recorded in the international trade statistics. In 2021, two thirds of the companies exporting from Finland to Russia and Central Asia were Finnish companies and one third were non-Finnish operators. In July–August 2023, the situation had changed and the share of non-Finnish operators was as high as 60 per cent. Exports by non-Finnish operators from Finland to the east were strongly linked to road transports from Finland across the eastern land border.

- Based on the statistical information and from the perspective of international trade, there is no need for exports by Finnish companies by road to the east for the time being, analyses Olli-Pekka Penttilä, Director of Statistics.

In 2021, the value of Finland’s goods exports to Russia and Central Asia amounted to 3.9 billion euros, whereas in 2022, the corresponding value was 2.5 billion euros. In 2022, exports decreased by 37.2 per cent compared to the previous year. In 2023, the value of Finland’s goods exports to Russia and Central Asia amounted to 1.2 billion euros, a decrease by 50.5 per cent compared to 2022 and by 68.9 per cent compared to 2021. The decrease in Finland’s exports to Russia and Central Asia was twice as large between 2023 and 2021 as the decrease in EU exports during the same period.

- Based on the international trade statistics, Finnish companies have decreased their exports to the east considerably more than EU companies on average. I want to take this opportunity to thank Finnish companies for acting responsibly, says Penttilä.

 The differences in the methods for compiling statistics must be taken into account when comparing the statistics of different countries

Export statistics are not compiled by country of origin. Due to this, when interpreting statistics, the share of Finland’s exports where the country of origin for exports is Finland must be estimated before Finland’s export statistics can be compared with the import statistics of another country. For example, based on Customs’ re-export statistics for 2022, roughly a fifth of Finland’s exports to the east were of non-Finnish origin, so when comparing with the import statistics of another country, one fifth of Finland’s exports must be removed before the comparison. This must be done e.g. when comparing exports recorded in Finland’s export statistics with imports from Finland recorded in the import statistics of the Central Asian countries, where the declared country of origin is Finland.

The international trade statistics of Finland and the Central Asian countries can be compared on the basis of this principle. Based on this so-called mirror comparison of statistics for 2022, the following can be concluded:

• Regarding goods of Finnish origin, the statistical difference between Finland’s exports and Kazakhstan’s imports in 2022 was around 50 million dollars, which was 24 percent of Finland’s exports to Kazakhstan.
• Regarding goods of Finnish origin, the statistical difference between Finland’s exports and Kyrgyzstan’s imports in 2022 was around 21 million dollars, which was 78 percent of Finland’s exports to Kyrgyzstan.
• Regarding goods of Finnish origin, the statistical difference between Finland’s exports and Armenia’s imports in 2022 was over a million dollars, which was four percent of Finland’s exports to Armenia.

Examined on the basis of the mirror comparison, Finland’s exports and Central Asia’s imports, Finland being the country of origin in both, the statistical differences are fairly small, considering the differences in the methods for compiling statistics. On the basis of the statistical comparisons, Russia may in theory have replaced its imports from Finland only by a couple of percentage points with imports from the Central Asian countries. On the other hand, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan together increased their exports to Russia by four billion dollars (+49% y/y). However, on the basis of the statistical comparisons, conclusions cannot be drawn about whether some of the export goods exported from EU countries to Central Asia have ended up in Russia as re-exports.

- In public, the differences between the international trade statistics of these countries have previously been brought up without observing the methodological differences. The statistical differences between Finland and the Central Asian countries are mostly methodological, but there are inexplicable statistical differences as well. Russia has not published its international trade statistics in 2022–2023, so the latest mirror comparison of the statistics between Finland and Russia was made at the end of 2021, says Penttilä.

Survey: Exports to Russia and Central Asia in 2021–2023 (in Finnish)

Eurostat is the statistical office of the European Union. The Eurostat website